To the American people,

If you have any interest in the Milano Cortina 2026 Winter Olympics, you’ve probably heard the NHL is sending its players to the men’s ice hockey tournament for the first time in 12 years. 

That’s a good thing, no matter how you look at it. The 2018 and 2022 tournaments suffered without NHL participation in both viewership and quality. While this is no disrespect to the gold medalists Olympic Athletes from Russia and Finland in those years, this tournament will better define the real best of the best. 

If you think the best of the best in hockey, chances are your mind goes to Canada. Hockey is Canada’s national sport, and it produces the most NHL players. In the five Olympic tournaments that have included NHL players, Canada has won three gold medals, defeating the United States en route to all three. Vancouver 2010 was particular heartbreak for Team USA. The gold-medal game went to overtime, but Canada’s Sidney Crosby dashed hopes for American glory by scoring the winner on home ice in an all-time Olympic moment.

In the hockey world, it’s common knowledge that Canada is once again the favorite. Crosby is still active and still great sixteen years later, and he’s joined by megastars Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar. Macklin Celebrini, Brad Marchand, Mitch Marner and Sam Reinhart are just a few of the other stars that fill out this stacked roster, and they are coached by Jon Cooper, who has guided a decade-plus of Tampa Bay Lightning excellence.

Last year, the NHL replaced its traditional All-Star Game with the 4 Nations Face-Off, a small tournament that pitted the best NHL players from Canada, the USA, Sweden and Finland against each other.

Particularly, the Canada-USA clashes made waves; they played twice amid a tense political backdrop. The first was a USA victory with three separate fights, and the second was the “championship” game, where McDavid scored the overtime winner.

It is because of that result, more than anything, that Team USA will not flip the script in Milan and win the country a third gold medal in men’s ice hockey.

Running on revenge is not a winning strategy, and it’s obvious that is what Team USA is after. NBC produced a commercial with Jon Hamm recently in which he speaks to the USA locker room. He tells the team their duty is to bring home “the biggest prize of all,” when he is suddenly interrupted by Jack Eichel. 

“Canadian tears,” Eichel says bluntly, and the commercial continues where Hamm realizes the true vitriol of the American players toward Canada, with quick flashback cuts to the 4 Nations.

Eichel centers a projected first line in which he is flanked by the Tkachuk brothers, Matthew and Brady. The Tkachuks are among the U.S. team’s most visible stars; Matthew, for example, appeared on The Tonight Show with Jimmy Fallon.

These three men, Eichel and Matthew especially, are well-known in the hockey world for being polarizing figures with inarguable talent but a penchant for being antagonistic. This has led to success in the NHL, Matthew is on the back-to-back defending Stanley Cup winner Florida Panthers, Eichel is on the Vegas Golden Knights who won the previous Stanley Cup by defeating said Panthers.

This isn’t the same kind of competition. The Panthers and Golden Knights are loaded with talent, most of their rosters are currently in Milan, but Brady’s Ottawa Senators are a perfect example. He employs a lesser version of the score/annoy play style his brother has (albeit with more penalty minutes) that didn’t do much for a young Ottawa team in the standings his first six years there. Only last year did the Senators return to the playoffs, and they bowed out in the first round to a much better Toronto.

Eichel and the Tkachuks will score, but their games are limited in two ways. First, most of their antics won’t fly at the Olympics at all. The International Olympic Committee doesn’t care what that’ll do for TV ratings. Second, if the U.S. gets a desired rematch with Canada, they don’t have a team behind them that can outplay Canada once their talent is limited, and part of their effectiveness is being able to antagonize. Whatever the opposite of an Olympic boost is, these guys are getting.

That would make captain Auston Matthews the best American forward at face value. Matthews is an incredible scorer who once had a 69-goal season, but he’s a second-tier superstar like Czechia’s David Pastrňák and Finland’s Mikko Rantanen, not quite McDavid, MacKinnon or Germany’s Leon Draisaitl. Jack Hughes is another American near Matthews’ level, but an injury might inhibit him. 

None of the rest of Team USA’s roster are bad players, but the desire for revenge appears to have clouded effective decision-making. 

USA General Manager Bill Guerin, who heads the Minnesota Wild, opted for veteran, “hard-nosed hockey” types over scoring. This works in the Stanley Cup Playoffs—it probably won’t in the Olympics. Jason Robertson and Cole Caufield are both near the top of this NHL season’s leaderboard in goals, neither were named to the roster. J.T. Miller is the obvious mistake blocking them, he’s having a terrible season on the New York Rangers, but Detroit’s Dylan Larkin might not have been the right choice either.

If beating Canada is their goal, they need to prioritize scoring goals rather than wearing them down. All four of Canada’s lines are going to be able to score at will.

At this point, if you are unfamiliar with hockey, you might ask why the experts give Team USA a chance to win this tournament at all.

Look no further than the American defensive corps, led by Hughes’ brother Quinn, a grade-A superstar only comparable to Makar. Quinn is the type of blueliner who can win a game by himself. Zach Werenski can do that on occasion as well. Jaccob Slavin and Brock Faber are defensive stalwarts, and Charlie McAvoy is a jack-of-all-trades. 

This is the best defense at the competition. Any team will have its hands full playing against it. But unlike a seven-game playoff series, this is a group stage that turns into a single-elimination tournament. The forward group has to be able to score enough to let the defense do its job.

More importantly, the forward group has to keep itself together. Eichel and the Tkachuks are personalities, and far from their NHL teams where they are treated as kings. They have to be dealt with carefully, and they won’t be happy when things go wrong.

Miller, defensemen Jake Sanderson and Noah Hanifin, and goaltender Jeremy Swayman have also caused controversies with teams this side of the Atlantic. A loss before a Canada rematch might blow a ticking time-bomb. 

Team USA is tasked with Latvia, Denmark and Germany in the group stage. There is no question this is a group it absolutely should win, but if that happens, don’t expect it to go smoothly and don’t be surprised when the bottom falls out afterward. 

Be prepared for a men’s ice hockey gold medal drought to extend to 50 years, and don’t seek respite in the French Alps 2030 Olympics, when big, bad Canada will have added Connor Bedard and Matthew Schaefer. When Team USA fails in Milan, be angry about it, because it will come out of preventable hubris.

After all, Canadian tears don’t win gold medals.