“The war, so to speak, is between vibes and precedent” Sean Fennessey of the Ringer said on The Big Picture podcast while trying his hand at predicting the upcoming 98th Academy Awards.
Across the most recent Oscars, film fans have been subject to complete an utter domination at the hands of both Christopher Nolan and Sean Baker. “Oppenheimer” and “Anora” both swept their respective years, winning a combined 12 awards and setting the precedent for one film supremacy in a new era of the Academy Awards.
But nothing close to the hegemony of this magnitude will happen on March 15, as the many precursor awards shows in the buildup to the Oscars have shown.
No clear front runner in three of the four acting categories has emerged, and in a two film race for Best Picture, vibes are mustering momentum over precedent sparking many questions heading into Hollywood’s biggest night.
Which industry legends or budding newcomers will win in the acting categories? And will it be the year of a “Sinners” shock or will “One Battle After Another” continue to roll towards the top prize?
While these queries have proven to be unanswerable, here is The Torch’s predictions ahead of the 2026 Oscars.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role: Stellan Skarsgård – “Sentimental Value”
Beginning with what has proven to be the most confusing race of this season, it should finally be Stellan Skarsgård’s time to win his elusive first Oscar.
Entering the night: Sean Penn’s villainous turn as Col. Lockjaw in “One Battle After Another” has recently secured the two-time Oscar winner victories at both the Actor Awards and the BAFTAs, becoming the tentative top contender. But all other nominees have been strong, Jacob Elordi’s performance as Frankenstein’s Monster won him a Critics Choice Award and Penn’s costar Benicio Del Toro was an initial front runner.
Most notably, Delroy Lindo earned a deserving but surprising nomination for his role in “Sinners,” and while he hasn’t won any of the ancillary awards, the “Sinners” surge is pushing him as a potential upset.
But the 74 year old Skarsgård’s has never been nominated for an Academy Award until his effective and touching showing as an estranged father attempting to reconnect with his children in “Sentimental Value.” A win in this category would be an earned victory in an illustrious career.
In a film full of memorable and emotional performances, Skarsgård’s portrayal of an aging filmmaker is a sensitive character that the Academy’s voter base likely relates to. Having already been given a Golden Globe for this performance, another trophy for Skarsgård wouldn’t be too shocking.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role: Teyana Taylor – “One Battle After Another”
Much like its sibling category, Best Actress in a Supporting Role has been a complete coin toss.
Amy Madigan, the sole nomination from “Weapons,” has most recently been awarded an Actor Award in addition to her win at the Critics Choice Awards; while another surprise “Sinners” nominee, Wunmi Mosaku, grabbed the BAFTA.
“Sentimental Value” has two nominees in this category as well (Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas and Elle Fanning) but neither have made significant traction.
This three-headed race has been neck-and-neck, but Teyana Taylor’s victory in this category would be a battle won for vibes.
Taylor’s name hasn’t been called since the Golden Globes when she gave a triumphant acceptance speech through tears. A victory for Taylor would not only show signs of “One Battle After Another’s” strength, but a testament to her impressive performance.
In the same ilk of Mahershala Ali’s iconic Best Supporting Actor win for Moonlight, Taylor is only present in the opening act of the film — but her absence only gives more weight to her performance.
Her energetic but somber presence is magnetic in the first 40 minutes of “One Battle After Another” and a deserving Academy Award would solidify her rise to stardom.
Best Actor in a Leading Role: Wagner Moura – “The Secret Agent”
Out of fear of repetition, it’s safe to say that the Best Actor in a Leading Role race has been the most competitive and volatile the category has been in years.
But it wasn’t always the knife fight that it is now, “Marty Supreme’s” Timothée Chalamet seemingly had his ambitions for gold all but satisfied, before his momentum was completely halted after a shutout at the Actor Awards and BAFTAs. This losing streak has looked even worse after his offensive comments directed at the opera and ballet community have sparked viral discussion.
Chalamet’s shortcomings have opened the door for anyone to claim Best Actor. Michael B. Jordan’s out-of-nowhere victory at the Actor Awards has made him the leader of the pack heading into the Oscars, but it still could be anyone that nabs the prize.
Ethan Hawke or Leonardo Dicaprio could win on name recognition alone; but Wagner Moura is a clear choice with Chalamet and Jordan expected to split the vote.
The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences has expanded in the last few years, cultivating a larger foreign voter base and appealing to a larger international audience which should herald more appreciation for international films. Giving Moura an Oscar would be a landmark moment in this new era.
But putting Academy politics aside, Moura’s performance is more than deserving of this recognition. Tasked with a difficult, tri-folded performance, Moura carries “The Secret Agent” on his shoulders.
He matches the film’s vivacious and colorful tone with comedic flashes but effortlessly breathes empathy into a character savagely oppressed by a fascist regime and his own powerful enemies. A win for Moura would be a shock, but admirable decision.
Best Actress in a Leading Role: Jessie Buckley – “Hamnet”
Shifting away from the erratic races invigorating this awards season, Best Actress in a Leading Role has been a lock for months. No disrespect intended to Rose Byrne, Emma Stone and the other great performances nominated, but they aren’t Jessie Buckley in “Hamnet.”
“Hamnet” has been given a fabulously depressing reputation, for example The Independent said: “Take tissues and prepare to have your heart ripped out” when examining the film’s innate sadness.
Considering the film explores topics of graphic child death, illness in the 16th century and alienation through grief, this aura of despair is appropriate.
Buckley is tasked with portraying these powerful, crushing and thankless emotions of a grieving mother, and simply stated, she rises to the call. Her performance is nothing short of staggering, earning her a win in every single precursor award show: with a Golden Globe, a BAFTA and Actor Award all lining her trophy shelf heading into the Academy Awards.
While Buckley’s sweep of the competition hasn’t been characteristic of the 2026 awards circuit, her role as Agnes is deserving of the praise that she will inevitably receive on Oscar night.
Best Director & Best Picture: Paul Thomas Anderson – “One Battle After Another”
Following a predicted night of shocks and surprises in the acting categories, the largest prizes should finally find their way to Paul Thomas Anderson.
Despite helming some of the most critically acclaimed films of the century, such as “There Will Be Blood,” “The Master” and “Phantom Thread” to name a few, the 12-time nominee has yet to receive a single Academy Award, until now.
The revolutionary romp “One Battle After Another” is the timely culmination of his entire career, likely netting the auteur three Oscars alone when the night is over. Wins in Best Actress in a Supporting Role, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Director and numerous technical awards are a mighty war chest for Anderson and build a difficult resume to beat.
But Ryan Coogler and his high octane blockbuster “Sinners” has recently caught fire. The cast won Best Ensemble at the Actor Awards and the aforementioned victories from Jordan and Mosaku have made this a closer race, but in the end “One Battle After Another” has won everywhere else.
Regardless of the late scare, Best Director and Best Picture will eventually be given to Anderson and his latest masterwork.
